Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 18 2020 | 1476 | 20972 | 45 | 6 | 476 | 594 |
| September 19 2020 | 1527 | 21008 | 47 | 6 | 490 | 622 |
| September 20 2020 | 1586 | 21014 | 47 | 6 | 526 | 645 |
| September 21 2020 | 1617 | 21015 | 47 | 6 | 519 | 640 |
| September 22 2020 | 1650 | 21086 | 49 | 6 | 479 | 650 |
| September 23 2020 | 1703 | 21300 | 49 | 6 | 471 | 666 |
| September 24 2020 | 1734 | 21415 | 50 | 6 | 475 | 674 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.4 | 2.9% | 14 | 0.12% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 10.6 | 22.3% | 106 | 0.78% | 141 | 1.04% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 22.7 | 48.6% | 231 | 1.1% | 362 | 1.73% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 5.0 | 9.7% | 46 | 0.34% | 54 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 2.9 | 6.1% | 29 | 0.28% | 33 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.6 | 4.2% | 20 | 0.16% | 27 | 0.22% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.7 | 3.8% | 18 | 0.16% | 28 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.1 | 2.3% | 11 | 0.11% | 13 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 31 | 48.0 | 100% | 475 | 0.45% | 674 | 0.64% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 18 2020 | 456 | 13383 | 18 | 0 | 71 | 85 |
| September 19 2020 | 466 | 13490 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 90 |
| September 20 2020 | 476 | 13728 | 18 | 0 | 81 | 98 |
| September 21 2020 | 480 | 13887 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 98 |
| September 22 2020 | 482 | 13929 | 18 | 0 | 73 | 97 |
| September 23 2020 | 489 | 14088 | 18 | 0 | 71 | 100 |
| September 24 2020 | 498 | 14231 | 19 | 0 | 78 | 103 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 18 2020 | 407 | 8297 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 25 |
| September 19 2020 | 411 | 8357 | 20 | 4 | 18 | 26 |
| September 20 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 32 |
| September 21 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 28 |
| September 22 2020 | 422 | 8495 | 20 | 4 | 27 | 29 |
| September 23 2020 | 425 | 8564 | 20 | 4 | 29 | 32 |
| September 24 2020 | 437 | 8691 | 21 | 4 | 39 | 43 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 18 2020 | 2375 | 23620 | 41 | 2 | 1024 | 1089 |
| September 19 2020 | 2475 | 23739 | 41 | 2 | 1105 | 1163 |
| September 20 2020 | 2568 | 23777 | 41 | 2 | 1123 | 1242 |
| September 21 2020 | 2622 | 23848 | 41 | 2 | 1099 | 1285 |
| September 22 2020 | 2698 | 24155 | 43 | 2 | 1073 | 1347 |
| September 23 2020 | 2785 | 24410 | 44 | 2 | 1031 | 1415 |
| September 24 2020 | 2838 | 24651 | 44 | 2 | 1039 | 1393 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.4% | 4 | 0.03% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 17 | 35.0 | 36.3% | 377 | 2.28% | 499 | 3.01% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 48.6 | 46.9% | 487 | 2.29% | 677 | 3.18% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.4 | 3.8% | 40 | 0.29% | 50 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 4.0 | 3.8% | 40 | 0.29% | 48 | 0.35% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.7 | 2.3% | 24 | 0.17% | 34 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.7 | 2.5% | 26 | 0.18% | 32 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.7 | 3.9% | 41 | 0.32% | 48 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 53 | 102.4 | 100% | 1039 | 0.88% | 1393 | 1.18% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 18 2020 | 8455 | 182213 | 350 | 41 | 2028 | 2656 |
| September 19 2020 | 8635 | 184706 | 350 | 41 | 2146 | 2674 |
| September 20 2020 | 8815 | 186173 | 352 | 41 | 1844 | 2697 |
| September 21 2020 | 8895 | 187412 | 352 | 41 | 1641 | 2687 |
| September 22 2020 | 8947 | 190377 | 353 | 41 | 1558 | 2520 |
| September 23 2020 | 9040 | 191786 | 354 | 41 | 1418 | 2551 |
| September 24 2020 | 9203 | 192910 | 357 | 41 | 1357 | 2232 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 4.6 | 2.9% | 39 | 0.06% | 47 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 46 | 43.9 | 35% | 475 | 0.67% | 972 | 1.37% |
| 20-29 | 56 | 46.9 | 34.3% | 465 | 0.45% | 739 | 0.71% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 14.0 | 9.1% | 124 | 0.16% | 157 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 19 | 12.7 | 8.5% | 116 | 0.18% | 144 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 8.4 | 5.8% | 79 | 0.12% | 98 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 4.3 | 2.7% | 36 | 0.07% | 43 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.6 | 1.7% | 23 | 0.05% | 32 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 163 | 137.3 | 100% | 1357 | 0.25% | 2232 | 0.41% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 18 2020 | 97279 | 1315258 | 6569 | 1238 | 14802 | 17925 |
| September 19 2020 | 99562 | 1325447 | 6619 | 1241 | 16228 | 19262 |
| September 20 2020 | 101227 | 1332102 | 6653 | 1242 | 16346 | 20034 |
| September 21 2020 | 102498 | 1337627 | 6692 | 1244 | 16248 | 20738 |
| September 22 2020 | 104170 | 1348492 | 6765 | 1251 | 16567 | 21693 |
| September 23 2020 | 105932 | 1360183 | 6821 | 1259 | 16747 | 22598 |
| September 24 2020 | 108324 | 1371070 | 6897 | 1265 | 18368 | 23443 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 94 | 62.4 | 2.9% | 541 | 0.08% | 661 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 372 | 335.9 | 18.1% | 3325 | 0.44% | 4525 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 554 | 509.6 | 26.6% | 4893 | 0.65% | 6535 | 0.86% |
| 30-39 | 301 | 249.7 | 12.6% | 2316 | 0.31% | 2785 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 299 | 226.3 | 11.4% | 2101 | 0.3% | 2575 | 0.37% |
| 50-59 | 362 | 250.4 | 12.8% | 2351 | 0.29% | 2894 | 0.36% |
| 60-69 | 242 | 173.0 | 8.6% | 1576 | 0.21% | 1917 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | 168 | 132.4 | 6.9% | 1265 | 0.2% | 1551 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 2392 | 1939.7 | 100% | 18368 | 0.32% | 23443 | 0.4% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64.4 | 103.6 | 173 | 48 | 41.6 | 30.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.9 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 5.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 6.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117.8 | 301.5 | 318.1 | 102.4 | 61.1 | 40.8% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.8 | 136.8 | 71.1 | 137.3 | 214.9 | 6.9% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.3 | 59.8 | 86.3 | 1939.7 | 1141.7 | 17% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 22.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-15 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1395"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges